How Walmart’s Upcoming Delivery System Will Transform the Online Customer Experience

Written By Benjamin Angel

Walmart is Testing New Dynamic Delivery Windows Down to Minutes

Walmart’s latest test — an AI-supported system that gives online shoppers down-to-the-minute delivery estimates — isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s the result of a multi-year push to make Walmart’s digital fulfilment network one of the fastest and most flexible in North America.

While other major retailers struggle to keep pace with consumer expectations around speed, precision, and convenience, Walmart has quietly built a delivery infrastructure capable of supporting real-time prediction at national scale.

And now, the company is confident enough in that network to layer AI directly on top of it.

A Retailer That Can Deliver to 95% of the U.S. in Under Three Hours

Walmart’s Q3 results paint a clear picture:

  • Revenue up 5.8% to $179.5B

  • Global e-commerce up 27%

  • Walmart U.S. online sales up 28%, with 70% growth in same-day delivery

  • Nearly 35% of store-fulfilled orders delivered in under three hours

Behind this growth is an aggressive expansion of automated fulfilment technology.
More than 60% of U.S. stores now receive freight from automated distribution centers.
Over 50% of e-commerce fulfilment center volume runs through automated systems.

These investments have driven double-digit shipping-cost reductions for many quarters — giving Walmart the flexibility to promise faster service without eroding margins.

This level of throughput and predictability is the foundation that makes real-time delivery estimation possible.

Why Walmart Is Testing AI Delivery Windows Now

Walmart’s new system replaces static one-hour delivery windows with real-time, minute-by-minute estimates.

The model combines:

  • Live traffic conditions

  • Real-time driver location

  • Fulfilment center processing times

  • Store-level capacity

  • Historical route performance

Some customers are already seeing sub-30-minute delivery estimates — something almost unheard of at national scale.

Walmart plans to roll the system out by the end of its fiscal year (Jan. 31), making it one of the first major retailers to deploy an AI-powered ETA engine across such a large logistics network.

This is a direct result of the flexibility Walmart has built into its omni-channel supply chain — and a capability most retailers simply don’t have.

Why Walmart Can Do This — and Others Can’t (Yet)

Target: Strong Stores, But Slower Digital Adaptation

Target has an impressive store-based fulfilment model, but its network isn’t automated at the same depth.

  • Manual picking dominates many Target backrooms.

  • Local delivery depends heavily on labor availability.

  • Throughput varies drastically by location.

Target has grown same-day services, but its system wasn’t designed for dynamic, algorithm-driven delivery promises. Its fulfilment times often fluctuate, and scaling real-time delivery estimates across thousands of stores remains a technical and operational challenge.

Kroger: The Ocado Bet Didn’t Deliver Flexibility

Kroger’s automation strategy has relied heavily on large Ocado customer fulfillment centers (CFCs) — high-capex facilities optimized for batch picking, not rapid, flexible, store-driven delivery.

The model struggled to translate in the U.S. market:

  • Slow ramp-up

  • Geographic limitations

  • High operating costs

  • Long delivery distances from CFCs to customers

This lack of hyperlocal flexibility is the exact opposite of Walmart’s network, where thousands of stores now operate as mini-fulfillment hubs.

Kroger is now closing multiple Ocado facilities and pivoting its strategy — a sign that achieving Walmart-level speed requires a different operational foundation.

Automation Is the Quiet Engine Behind Walmart’s Confidence

Walmart’s ability to test dynamic delivery windows comes from something simple but difficult to replicate: a deeply automated, highly distributed supply chain.

Recent company disclosures highlight:

  • Autonomous forklifts from Fox Robotics

  • High-density storage systems from Knapp

  • Sensor-driven inventory accuracy from Wiliot

  • Next-generation automated fulfilment centers that are twice as productive as legacy facilities

Automation now touches nearly every part of Walmart’s logistics ecosystem, improving throughput, cost structure, and consistency.

Those factors matter — because AI prediction isn’t useful without reliable operational execution behind it.

What This Means for the Future of Retail Delivery

Walmart’s test represents a turning point for consumer expectations. Just as ride-hailing normalized real-time ETAs, Walmart is pushing retail toward a world where delivery windows are precise, not approximate.

Retailers that rely on slower manual processes or siloed automation systems will find it increasingly difficult to compete. Target, Kroger, and others will need to rethink how flexible — and how automated — their supply chains truly are.

In the coming year, we can expect:

  • More retailers experimenting with AI-powered ETA engines

  • Increased automation investments as companies try to match Walmart’s speed

  • A shift toward store-based fulfilment as the default model for grocery and general merchandise

  • Pressure on legacy automation systems (like CFCs) that prioritize batching over responsiveness

Walmart isn’t just testing technology — it’s signaling where the next phase of e-commerce competition will be fought: real-time delivery confidence.

Benjamin Angel
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